It seems, if we ignore Spain, Greece, Portugal and Spain of course, the good times wait for the European Union economies. Germany leads the recovery with a direct positive impact on Central Europe, bound to Berlin by economic ties tightly. Those unlucky four nations must suffer, because Germany does not allow their exports to compete with Berlin. The Germans can get international loans cheaper, thus providing China etc, with lower prices.

Since Spain etc. adopted euro, they even cannot readjust their currency to bleak economic situation and suffer from the strong euro, supported, paradoxically by their biggest European export rival. The people in the European Union saved much more than their counterparts in the United States and now, as the growing consumer confidence shows, are ready to open their wallets finally.

The EU's (besides those four) export reorientation from Washington to Beijing also means that the faltering US performance will not automatically hit Brussels painfully. And even if Germany's exports decrease, there is still France with much more balanced economic structure and stronger domestic demand. Therefore, Paris could substitute Berlin and pull the European Union out of the crisis, if Asia's demand slows down.

Milan Sebo

PHOTO: ISIFA